Raze and Ruin 2015: Predictions Part 2

Here we go again! Part two of Jake's look at the armies at Raze and Ruin this year. Again, I may chime in from time to time, but the rest is all him. On with the show!
 

Raze and Ruin Predictions

Skaven

Luke Midgley - I don’t know well enough what Thanquol does, but I don’t remember him being especially terrifying for the points. Got to love the Giant Rat unit and Rat Ogres! Think this is a soft list, though extremely characterful – not sure +2 comp is quite enough to make up for the lack of raw power.

Az, by contrast, has brought two units of Stormfiends to the party, and at comp +1 as well. Terrifying! Lots of rats and slaves to back it up, though 20s of Slaves seem quite small. With the magic and shooting available here, some armies will just disintegrate – though anything that can answer the Stormfiends early will present a real challenge, and there’s no Doomwheel or Abomination to keep people distracted from getting to the real points. It’s basically a bit one dimensional – with the right draws and luck it could be an event winner, but it could just as easily all go horribly wrong.

Craig has gone a bit more nuanced – larger units, a second cannon over the stormfiends, and stormvermin with dual warlord to back the double seer. I happen to prefer this approach – I think it is less one-dimensional than Az’s list, and hence more likely to (with good generalship) be able to take on a wide spectrum of matchups – can play more aggressively. That said, as with a few lists here and as Craig himself identified on Twitter, if people play defensively against it he may not score the big points very easily.

Best in Race: Craig Johnson

Tomb Kings

Always good to see the high scores like James Boots’ army (unless it’s Bat Swarms, anyway). MSU Tomb Kings is a really interesting list, too. I’m not convinced it’ll actually necessarily win that many games, but it’s extremely cool and may well have tricks I haven’t seen coming.

Martin Seed has a more conventional army at the +4 mark, though a bit light on Horse Archers for my taste. The magic is certainly horrid, and against the softer lists the TK ought to do well, but I suspect this army will get smashed back down again if it reaches near the top. I could be wrong though – it is a solid army – but I suspect there will be some matches it just can’t win.

Wesley Vickers’ army is the same comp score and quite similar in some ways, but to my mind has the inferior magic phase. A few more support units are welcome to see, but the problems remain the same – may just get knocked back down when it plays a top army.

Joe Sutton brings an army befitting the spare player – ok, not weak, but containing a few unusual choices. Dual casket is pretty cool, but still don’t expect this to dominate. (To be fair to him, this is the list he wanted to take when he was planning on playing in the event properly. It seemed only fair to let him take it as a Spare Player too! - Sandy)

Best in Race: Martin Seed.

Vampire Counts

Arkadiusz has a Zombie Dragon, and that’s pretty cool. Few cannons about either! Horrid magic, a big brick of Crypt Horrors to fight with, some Zombies to stand in the way, and a Zombie Dragon to go about scoring points. This will be very matchup dependent – get the right ones and a seemingly unusual looking list could actually do really well. (Count Mannfredd also makes up for a lot... ;) - Sandy)

Jack, by comparison, has a vampire bus. Not many Light Councils or Cannons to worry it – so this could have potential, though a fair few armies either have something it can’t fight, or something it can’t catch. Still, should be a solid performer.

Best in Race: Jack Chapman

Warriors of Chaos

Ten Warriors armies! Who turned the clock back?

Jonathan Chester has a mono-Tzeentch offering with quite a bit of potential for its +7 score. Looking at the comp it probably has limited Ward saves on its characters, making it less awful than it’d otherwise be, but there’ll be Blasted Standard on that Warrior block hiding a high-powered caster and potentially the other characters to make a solid deathstar, and the rest of the army is hardly full of soft points, though the Vortex Beast is awful (and yes I have played against one – more than one, actually). Anyway, this should do well, though some armies it will struggle to catch/pick the right fights against.

Tony Hayle’s army seems rather softer, with a vulnerable caster, no deathstar, and generally more vulnerable units. Some armies will be concerned by the double fliers, mind! Still, even with comp +6, I think the top lists will destroy this army, sadly.

Elliott Morrish has Galrauch, who is always great fun. No BSB with Galrauch is unusual though! I do like the spread of threat units, and the magic phase is horrid, but there’s just not *quite* enough crunch in any one area here for me to call this a top list. It’s far from bad, though, and will probably happily play around the middle tables.

John Parish is certainly not bringing a subtle army! Death + Hellcannons can be an utter pain, and Archaon is really really hard. Even so – if the tricks don’t work the army is not all that mobile and a shade vulnerable to my taste.

Felix Newman has the first Daemon Prince, and the combination with the pair of Chimeras – in a cannon light environment – could be really really good. I’m not so sold on Sigvald, but I suppose it is comp points and not a complete walkover. Could be a bit of a glass hammer, but Slaanesh magic answers for a multitude of sins – this is the strongest Warriors list so far, albeit close to Jonathons’.

Ben Dunford has a spread of threats that’ll make for a real fun and cool looking army, but I don’t think any of it really adds up to a powerful list. Nurgle isn’t a great lore, the Warrior units look vulnerable, and the army generally seems liable to be taken apart piecemeal, while also being unable to take a properly hard combat force on head-on. Plus, he’s drawn me round 1…

Adam Daly is bringing a Slaanesh Prince and Kholek! See again under cannons and the lack thereof. Could be really good in this environment, actually – though I think I prefer the dual Chimeras, slightly. (Kholek always wins Manhammer points though! - Sandy)

Emmanuel’s army is solid – some hard combat units plus disclord and daemonic mount bsb to go hunt things. I worry it’s a bit small, given each unit isn’t *that* hard on its own, but Nurgle is certainly a powerful Mark and Chaos Lords are hardly walkovers. I reckon this will be a strong contender – hard to score points from, and aggressive.

Huw Jenkins has an interesting magic phase and quite a bit of effective combat support, but a few of the choices seem unusual to me for the low comp score. It’s far from bad, but I think it lacks the power that the combat characters in a few of the above armies bring.

Barrie Norman brings a very hard list to the table – Hellcannon, powerful deathstar unit, no soft points. Can it fight past a -6 comp score? Better than most of the above, I imagine, and I expect this to float around the top tables ruining hobbies, though it might be hard to get an actual win with that score unless everything goes right.

Best in Race: Barrie Norman.

Wood Elves

Forest Dragon! Someone been playing Age of Sigmar, maybe? Jamie Payne’s list otherwise has a bit of shooting, a horrible magic phase and a very large Wild Rider unit, which presumably doubles as combat threat and bunker. High/Death is a scary scary lore combination, but the actual shooting isn’t that nasty for a Wood Elf list – equally, with two heavy combat threats floating about and not that many real points in the backfield, going after them may not prove worth it in the long run. I think this is very solid for a +5, and in a cannon light environment ought to be a real contender.

Thomas Munk instead has triple Treeman Ancients! I haven’t played against one to have much of a clue as to what it does, but again see under lack of cannons. A bit of shooting, a bit of combat support – not convinced this list is as good as Jamie’s, but I might be underestimating the Ancients.

Melvin is the first to bring my favourite Wood Elf unit – Warhawk Riders. So, so good. Otherwise, a few softer choices – Arcane Bodkins are very costly, Waystalkers often gimmicky, Eternal Guard not all that good, and the magic is relatively weak – but the MSU threat profile could give some armies problems. I think it’s a solid army in the midtable area, but a little prone to being run over by some of the harder armies at the event, and will finish slightly above the midfield.

Best in Race: Jamie Payne.

Undead Legion

Tony Swallow’s Blood Knight bus is actually really good, at comp +7. It’s a very hard unit that doesn’t give up points easily and is highly resilient, and it has an utter cloud of cheap support that’ll take a while for anything he can’t fight to chew through, while not giving up all that many points. One of the more comp-breaking lists I’ve seen, to be honest. There are places it could go wrong against very heavy shooting or hard combat threats, and if the knights want to engage it may prove difficult to manoeuvre the flak, but overall I think this list can win some games big and mitigate losses in the rest, and with a good comp score, really impresses me. (It would have been a +9 had the Flag been a Magic Item! - Sandy)

Warren Stevens has a much more mixed feel to his list, with a good variety of units. While the Hexwraiths seem good in the event metagame, I’m not convinced the rest of it really either fights or holds its points very well – and as such suspect this to be a pretty soft list.

Best in Race: Tony Swallow

Legions of Chaos

Luke Tranter has brought what he usually brings to events at the moment, approximately – Doombulls and Razorgor. Thankfully, here, he gets a free 10 tournament points out of it! (OK, the Centigor are unusual even for Luke). It’s actually a very solid list – the Ungor plus characters make for a scary bus unit, the Razorgor hit harder than people expect, and Centigor are solid if unexceptional flankers. With a +10, this could do pretty well, though I think it might run into trouble against the very top lists and hence not make podium.

Chris Mace has a bit of everything – Slaanesh magic is really good, but far better on a mobile platform, sadly. The units are individually solid, but there’s nothing standout exceptional in this list – neither overwhelming combat punch, nor very heavy firepower, nor total MSU. It’ll be fun to play with and against, but I think it lacks a certain something when viewed competitively.

Alasdhair has a very cool mono-Khorne army. No BSB is brave! It’s basically two hard infantry blocks, four flak units, and six chariots (two of which have cannons on) – oh, and a Shaggoth and some Knights, so it’s lots of combat pressure, but might suffer from none of the units being individually that scary. An opponent better able to concentrate force, and with access to a magic phase, may take this apart piecemeal – but those are lots of overlapping charge arcs, and quite a few armies just won’t be able to cope with all this coming at them. (At least there's no Level 4 this year... - Sandy)

Best in Race: Luke Tranter

Host of the Aestyrion

Well, somebody had to. With 5 20-0 wins, this theoretically could win the event – but I don’t think it’s actually going to get that, given the 200vp brackets. Too many points outside the deathstar. It certainly is scary though! I suspect in practice a canny opponent will keep the main unit from scoring big points while trying to run down the artillery and shoot off the fast-cav, and mitigating return damage as far as possible, and I’m not sure the list can hence win big enough consistently enough to overcome a -20.

Best in Race: Liam Wordsworth

Host of the Phoenix King

Again, somebody had to… At least this Malekith is less totally game-breaking than the other one. Again, -16 is a big hurdle to overcome – and some of those infantry units can be quite vulnerable. No BSB, either. Still, two horrid flying threats plus support that’ll take time to blow through could work out – but my instinct is that this is less good than the Tyrion build above. Some people just won’t be able to answer Malekith, but enough people will get points out of the army for a win to be unlikely and tbh a podium similar. Might mess up some people’s run at the top places though.

Best in Race: Julie Stevens. 

Well, that's the end of the rundown! Thanks to Jake for taking the time to go through all the lists. It must have been a big job. 

My Favourites

As I said yesterday, there are a few lists that to me stand out as contenders for the event. These might be lists that have played the Comp pack well and have a good score for how tough they seem, lists that have all the tools to overcome their Comp deficit, or lists that can play well despite seemingly containing weaker units. I'm not saying that these lists are unbeatable, but to me they seem like the early favourites to finish well.

So, in no particular order:

Nav Hussain - Orcs & Goblins

Nav has a big unit of Orcs, lead by one of the biggest Orcs there is. He has a great selection of Magic with the double Level 4, a lot of shooting, and 2 big monsters to threaten the squishier lists. There also isn't a lot of soft points in this list. I expect it to shoot and cast Foot on anything that Grimgor can't beat up, and then clean up the rest in combat. It's going to be very tough to stop.

Craig Johnson - Skaven

Filth. :-) This is a variation on his ETC list that I played a couple of games against before that event, and I couldn't figure out how to beat it. It has a huge amount of ranged threat in the Cannons, Gutter Runners, Stormfiends and magic, can dictate his opponent's movement with the Slaves and Doomwheel, and has the Stormvermin to clean up what's left. Plus, I fully expect him to be using Undeath which adds a whole new layer of trouble to the list. He's put out on Twitter that his main worry is that people won;t engage, but I don't see a list out there that can avoid him for 6 turns without giving up enough for a decent win to Craig.

Sotiris Bellos - Empire

A very strong list, two Tanks always makes for a tough game. Given that these are some of the only cannons at an event with lots of monsters, they should be able to pick up some easy points in some games. Supporting them you have the standard Empire cavalry, a good selection of magic, and enough light shooting to take out some of the harder to catch lists. I could just have easily picked the other Empire list with two Tanks, but I think the added threat of the Peg riders and Demigryphs push this to the top.

Ian Sturgess - High Elves

Ian has decided to play very safe with his High Elf list - which actually takes it well out of his comfort zone! However, given how well he has done with the wacky lists I can see him doing better with the filthier aspects of the book. Even the first line of his list is enough to scare most people, as Teclis seems to have just picked the most hated spell from each Lore! Added to that the potential for a second Banishment, this is one that has all the tools to win.

Felix Newman - Warriors of Chaos

This is the first time I disagree with Jake. The thing that makes Warriors so difficult to comp is that so many of their choices are good. A list that has a Daemon Prince, 2 Chimerae and 2 Chariots has the potential to do a huge amount of damage. To get these threats with a Comp score of +1 gives it a huge advantage over most of the other smashy Warriors lists. 

Any of the Lizardmen Lists

I know, a cop out, so sue me! ;-) To be fair, they are all good in their own ways and any one of them could very easily take out the event. They either have a good Comp score, the sheer power to flex their way out of a bad score, or the subtlety that comes from being played by Jake and Raff - two of the very best. This is all set up to be one of the most interesting Best in Race battles of the weekend.

And that's it!

If there is anything else that you want to know about the lists, then let me know. I might have enough ideas for one more post tomorrow, but after that it will just be the event itself to look forward to. I will be doing a recap post afterwards too, so see you then!

Raze and Ruin 2015: Predictions Part 1

Something that went down very well last year were the Best in Race predictions before the event. I have spoken to Jake Corteen, who did them last year, and he has very kindly had a look again this year! I have broken them down into two parts, with 9 races being done today and 9 more tomorrow. I may weigh in on certain topics, and you'll see my comments in italics.

With no further ado, I will pass you over to Jake!

Raze and Ruin Predictions

I’ve done these for a few events now, and they seem popular, and Sandy has asked me to do them again for Raze and Ruin. I’ve managed at least passable accuracy in the past, hopefully I can keep my record strong.

Basically, I review in very brief the lists from each army, then give my pick for Best in Race. On a good day, I get about half of them right.

I might go through the Round 1 matchups as well if I get time, but no promises. I’ve tried to do this based on list as much as on player, though I will sometimes take the latter into account. I’ve not looked at the Round 1 matchups when doing these, so that’ll add a degree of inaccuracy.

Beastmen

I always seem to give this to Luke Tranter, but then the traitor is playing Legions of Chaos instead. (OK, OK, I’ve seen his list, I’ll give him a break). (I think he could have got it to a +15 as a pure Beastmen list. Disappointing. :P - Sandy)

Best in Race: Chris Legg to somehow come 2^nd despite not actually being at the event or playing Beastmen.

Bretonnia

Only two lists here makes this a simple review to start with, on the face of it, but in practice so much in these lists hangs on the magic items. Otherwise, Ben has gone for one big lance, whereas Slatch has a slightly more spread threat profile. Looking at the other armies, I think the potential for Dwellers threat is really useful against some of the lower-comp lists, and I rate Heavens over Beasts for Brets.

Thing is, I was on a team event recently with Ben and know the tricks he likely has, and think it’s a really very good list indeed, and know he knows how to use it. Slatch is always a solid player, but has been using more armies lately so is likely less in practice. As such, I have to go for Ben here.

Best in Race Prediction: Ben Atkinson

Daemons of Chaos

Another easy one for best in race, with only one list! Oh how the mighty fall...

It’s actually a very aggressive list with not very many soft points at all to give away, and it exists in a relatively cannon light metagame for the event (even the 4 dwarf players only have the one cannon between them). I think this is extremely strong in the environment, and could really ruin some people’s days. With so few points to give away, if it gets the right matchups it could score the 20s despite the 200vp brackets.

Best in Race: Chris White. (Obviously! - Sandy)

Dark Elves

OK, now I have some actual decisions to make, with four armies present.

Got to admire Andy Bettney's +14 list! As we established above, it’s a cannon light environment – but there are still a fair few other sources of shooting, to which the chariots are more vulnerable. I think it’s going to be brilliant fun to play, but I’m not convinced this army brings enough raw power to the table to capitalise on its +14 for an actual top placing. I do intend to find out how it gets on though, as it’s one of the more unusual armies at the event.

Max Halford’s list is, by contrast, actually pretty horrid at a fairly neutral comp score. It may look scattered at a first read, but I’ve learned to respect Hellebron, and I think Life magic is well positioned in this event metagame. The army can concentrate a lot of points into a unit, with the cauldron and Hellebron letting it smash right through a lot of opponents’ armies for big wins; while there aren’t *too* many points to give up around the edges, and the Warlocks are difficult to pin down. It’ll be heavily matchup dependent – some armies will manage to avoid the main unit or shoot it off, and clean up the support; but all it’ll take is the right draws and this army will drift right to the top.

James Wroot has a more conventional appearing list – Malekith in a big bus of Cold Ones, a Witch Elf block, plus some shooting, Warlocks and fast units round the edges. It’s sort of a double bus list, with the cold one characters perfectly able to run in the Warlocks, giving it three tough combat units two of which are pretty fast, and the ability to control its engagements. My big concern is that it lacks combat crunch – none of the characters are *that* hard, I’ve previously found the cold one / warlock buses really benefit from a choppy Dreadlord to do damage against hard targets, and Malekith just doesn’t cut it in that regard. Still, -4 is not *that* low a comp score for a very aggressive list that is perfectly able to go out and get the big wins, so this should do well.

Mike Sylvester appears to have gone for raw power over comp score – but I doubt it can put up the numbers required to podium through a -11 score, given the other armies at the event. It’s hard, but not 10pts over 5 games harder than some of the 0 lists, I suspect. Still, I could be proven wrong and I expect this to drift upward, eventually ending in a slightly above middle finish after comp is applied.

Best in Race prediction: James Wroot.

Dwarfs

Lots of variety in the Dwarf armies, which shows the comp is doing its job. (My view is that Tally Comp is valuable more for the variety that it encourages than for the actual balancing effect.)

The +19 effort from Andrew Smith is certainly impressive. Sadly, however, I expect other armies to run over the top of it too easily for it to actually win anything – but it should get some points somewhere and finish around the middle.

Terry Flaherty, on the other hand, I expect to do rather well. He’s been putting up strong results recently with combat dwarfs, and this army is both at +6 comp and has the tools to do the job. Irondrakes are scary, scary things; and with the gyros and shooting it can both control engagements and actually fight with its hard brick and solid support units. I’d tip this for placing very well.

Dan Seymour has a hybrid sort of build with a bit of artillery and some solid bricks, but it misses the gyrocopters to control engagements, and in my experience the slayers are just too vulnerable. It’s not a bad list by any means, but neither does it quite have the honed edge that Terry’s does – I’d expect a middle placing.

Will Dunn has a solid approach – Irondrakes appear again, though in a smaller unit. The only dwarf list with respectable artillery, this has a lot of firepower – but not enough combat to back it up, and in practice with only one cannon to stop hard targets I think it might end up overrun in a few games. To my view dwarfs can’t go halfway on this – they need either their full power artillery park or to put points into manoeuvre and combat, if they try to do both the points just don’t stretch.

Best in Race: Terry Flaherty.

Empire

Seems there’s been a fire sale on Steam Tanks, with both armies here bringing two. Tom backs it up with a very-hard-indeed knight brick, and some comp-positive support; while Sotiris brings a mini Light council, some MSU shooting, and a unit of Demis to back up a much smaller knight unit. Tom has 5 points more on comp, but I think Sotiris’ list is the more flexible – sure, it gives up more points, but I think it also has the potential to score more. Depends – if people misplay against Tom or misread how strong the Knights are, it may be possible to go right through whole armies with them, and the Tanks are always solid – but I think Sotiris has a better spread of matchups overall. The Pegasi are really, really good. Both armies should place near the top, I reckon – solid comp scores for how hard they are.

Best in Race: Sotiris Bellos.

High Elves

Josh Meads has my respect for his Moon Dragon Archmage and Dragon Mage, it must be said. Should be fun to play, and as before, cannon-light environment. Equally, not sure the High Elf cav is hitty enough to back it up, with no characters in support – not even a BSB. +7 comp doesn’t answer that, so not a top-placing list, though a very fun and characterful one.

Maciej has managed a +2 comp score with (probably) Book and Banner – but has some quite soft units to do it. Only one bolt thrower plus some Seaguard shooting, and not *that* much hard combat, makes this a slightly soft list despite the often-underestimated power of the Anointed on Frostheart. Still, I’ve learned not to underestimate combined arms High Elves too much – they always seem to end up performing well, and this one is very mobile and flexible. I’d expect an above-average placing but not setting the world on fire, here.

Simon Brown again seems to have Book & Banner, and dual Lv4 magic phases are usually pretty scary. Swordmasters, though, I’m not a great fan of, and the army is lacking in solid support. Too many armies can just pick a block and kill it, and clean up the backfield, and score a clean if not huge win.

I’ve learned not to bet against Ian Sturgess. This time he’s brought a more conventional list than usual – will his mojo desert him? Teclis is just horrible, having played against him before, and see what I said above about combined-arms High Elves. The Phoenix Guard are a very solid unit indeed, the army has some shooting support, and the silver helm minibus is pretty capable with that magic  backing it up – if there’s one failing it’s a lack of Eagles or Reavers, but that may just mean less points to give away. I’d back this over any of the other High Elf lists.

Best in Race: Ian Sturgess

Lizardmen

Much respect for Hugh Scarlin, bringing a Skink Chief deathstar. Razordons + High magic look scary on paper, but my experience last time with them was that they just aren’t worth the points. Still, the list has a lot of shooting and relatively few soft points, and Lizards are always strong even before a +6 comp bonus. The skrox deathstar is actually very capable indeed, and I suspect some people will underestimate it heavily – and the list has a stupid number of redirectors to keep points safe if need be. It’s even more vulnerable than standard Lizards to pressure from fliers, though; and the wrong magic can make a total mess of it. Very solid, and will drift toward the top, but I think the odds are there’ll be a matchup or two that knock it off the very top.

Raff has brought dual Slann – nice throwback to the old days, and Undeath is *insanely* powerful. I’d have brought it, but I don’t have the models painted to get cohesive points, and didn’t want the penalty. Otherwise, the list has some unusual choices, but still loads of power – Oldblood (probably flying?) and dual Vets plus Stegadon means a lot of combat crunch, and the magic certainly backs it up well. There’s less shooting than usual, and it may prove difficult to protect the Slann in some games, but this is a solid contender, especially in a cannon-light environment. Lots of tricks with High magic supporting Undeath, too – underestimate this army at your peril, lacking Skinks or no.

I’ve brought my fairly standard list from recently – it’s a pretty aggressive build for Lizards, with a fierce magic phase and lots of aggressive options from the Rippers, Skrox and dual Oldbloods, combined with a decent bit of shooting. Might be a bit short on units, but I’m hoping it’s set up to get the big scoring results I’ll need for a high placing. Can I beat Raff though? (You very nearly ended up drawn against him Round 1! - Sandy)

Adam Freeman’s list is one of the few negative scores I think has a chance of doing really well. It’s an utter pain to get points out of, and really aggressive, and there isn’t *that* much at the event that fights it headon. It’s going to depend heavily on matchup, and if people play defensive against it it just won’t score the points required to overcome a -7 and place right at the top, but I’d expect this to win most of its games.

Best in Race: Raff Harbinson, but all of these armies will place well, and I intend to give him a run for his money.

Ogre Kingdoms

Ollie Fox has two very solid brick units for a +2 list, and I’ve always liked shooty Maneaters. As seems to be a good choice for this event, very few soft points. However, I think Maw lets the army down a little – with Heavens it’d be a lot scarier, more able to pressure people. It’s a solid list and some armies just can’t answer it, but not quite event winning I don’t think.

Alex Wheatley has a slightly different approach – 3*6 Leadbelchers is a lot of shooting! I also do love the dual Slaughtermaster, and it’s a solid list for a neutral comp score. I do worry, though, that there are a few too many things about that the Ogres can’t answer without Ironblasters, and the Leadbelchers give up points more easily than Maneaters do.

Chris Bond’s army is certainly cool – dual Thundertusk isn’t something you see every day! Backed by some solid units, but again, I think Ogres need their Ironblasters to play with the top armies. Nonetheless, never underestimate a GutStar, and there isn’t much Death magic about…

Mick McKee has a nice combined arms approach, and does at least have one Ironblaster – hoping that’s a Flyrant, too. Solid, capable, neutralish comp score – recipe for success, but I don’t know, it just doesn’t inspire me. It has potential, but I think too many armies will be able to fight it on their own terms.

Christian Moore has to drop to comp -4 to get dual Ironblaster in – but it’s totally worth it. This is the strongest Ogre list here. Ironguts are a bit small, meaning the GutStar is kind of vulnerable, but lots of shooting, good magic (Heavens is great in these lists) and a flexible set of answers makes this my pick for top Ogre.

Best in Race: Christian Moore (and not just because I beat him at 40k recently…)

Orcs & Goblins

Mark Borland, hobby hero as always. That’s a lot of goblins, plus no magic, no artillery and no manglers! Even with +20, can he make it to the top? I sadly suspect not – despite some tricks I suspect to be present that I won’t spoil, but a lot of people underestimate – but I’d love it if he did. Think it’s too vulnerable though.

Nav Hussein, by contrast, managed +9 with notably more power – Grimgor is really good, and the army has both a fearsome magic phase and is hard to get points out of. Could be a real contender, this army – though if people don’t play the game against it, could be harder for it to score points, and one or two of the armies might actually be able to take it off. Barring those issues, though, one to watch.

Gareth Barton’s list is pretty conventional – but lots of goblins! Think it lacks support, though – too easy to get round it and engage one unit at convenience, and not enough reach to really threaten people effectively.

Philip Ashley does it better – that’s a solid list for a -1. A better magic phase and savage orcs over normal orcs makes a big difference, as do a few support units. This said, there are enough hard lists about to knock even a strong o&g list back down into the field – it’ll be play and matchup dependent, but I’m not expecting this to be a contender for the event win unless the general turns out to be excellent.

Best in Race: Nav Hussein


Well that's it for today! If your army hasn't been mentioned today, make sure you tune in tomorrow and we will have the second half of Jake's predictions. I will also reveal the 6 lists I feel have an edge on the competition, so stay tuned! :-)

Raze and Ruin: The Stats

With less than two weeks to go until the event, it's time to take a look at the stats and the armies!

Armies

There are currently 58 players at the event, as we have had a couple of drop outs. There may be people filling those spots, but for now I am going to assume they don't get filled! Out of the 20 different armies, we have representatives for 18 of them. No appearences for Beastmen (sort of...) or for Chaos Dwarfs. (Not a real army) 

Here is a break-down of the numbers of each race, sorted by popularity, and the average Tally Comp score for each race:

Army	Number of Players	Average Comp Score
Warriors of Chaos	10	-0.1
Ogre Kingdoms	5	-0.9
Dark Elves	4	+0.3
Dwarfs	4	+7
High Elves	4	+1.8
Lizardmen	4	0
Orcs and Goblins	4	+7.5
Tomb Kings	4 (inc Spare Player)	+7 (+8 without)
Legions of Chaos	3	+4.7
Skaven	3	0
Wood Elves	3	+1.7
Bretonnia	2	-1.5
The Empire	2	+0.5
Vampire Counts	2	-3
Undead Legion	2	+4
Daemons of Chaos	1	-1
Host of the Aestyrion	1	-20
Host of the Phoenix King	1	-16
Beastmen	0
Chaos Dwarf	0

Some interesting things to take from that table:

• It kinda gives away the scores for three of the lists!
• Warriors of Chaos make up almost one sixth of the event...
• Of those armies that have more than one entrant, VC have the lowest average and Orcs & Goblins the highest (if I include the Spare Player and his Tomb King list!) 
• We may have no Beastmen, but one of the Legion of Chaos lists is a pure Beastmen list. I say that counts!

I have put together a PDF containing all of the Closed versions of the list - that is, the lists disclosing anything that your opponent can see or will know at the start of the game. This document is sorted by Race, then by Comp Score within that race. You can find that document here.

Units
Something I was interested in seeing was how many different End Times units and characters were going to appear. The obvious place to start is with the big characters. We have 5 End Times Special Ccharacters at the event: Grimgor, Incarnate of Beasts, Thanquol & Boneripper, Festus Empowered, Tyrion Avatar of Khaine and Malekith the Phoenix King. Both of the Elven Special Characters are starting with hefty Comp penalties, and therefore will be matched up against each other in Round One, so it will be very interesting to see which prevails in that game!
Aside from the characters, Skaven are the biggest End Times culprits with 3 Storm Fiend units across the armies. The only Daemon list also dips into the End Times book with 2 (yes, 2!) Wrath of Khorne Bloodthirsters leading it.

Magic Items
Someone has asked me to do a little research about some of the Magic Items that have been taken to the event - mainly in reference to the Comp bonuses that some of the items provide. This is much harder to do than the previous one, as the Magic Items are not shown on the Closed lists! However, I've gone through the lists I was sent and I think the following are accurate. But if not, then feel free to take a poll at the event!

• Racial Magic Item: 13
• Araybian Carpet: 6
• Book of Ashur: 6
• Shivejir's Hex Scroll: 3
• Wizarding Hat: 2

So the big winners of the new comp pack are obviously the Hex scroll and the Book of Ashur. My quick look through didn't see any Swords of Bloodshed or Rampager's Standards at all, so even the +1 didn't seem to attract people to them.

Comp
In addition to the table, there are some interesting things to note about the various Comp Scores:

• The most common Comp Score is -1
• The average of all 58 lists is +1.2
• The full range of +20 to -20 is covered!
• There are 19 lists that qualify for a single Look Out Sir roll for the big spells, and 12 that qualify for 2 Look Out Sirs.
• There are 24 negative scoring lists altogether.

Well, that's it for this post. If there is anything else that you want to see before the event, just give me a shout and I'll do what I can!

Raze and Ruin 2015 - The Final Countdown!

As promised, it's the end of August and I am finalizing the Comp and rules pack for Raze and Ruin this weekend. I have had a lot of feedback about the draft that went up in this blog a few weeks ago, and whilst I could continue tinkering forever to try and get it just right, I think I need to bite the bullet and release it.

Just to ensure that there isn't a repeat of the now infamous "Slatch" incident of last year, there is a new line in the Rules Pack for the event. This reads as follows:

"Raze and Ruin will be using Tally Comp to determine the relative strength of the various armies being brought. This is further detailed in a separate document, but as it is quite a lengthy document there may be wording errors. One of these was spotted last year, and it led to someone playing the comp rather than the game. To stop this, the Tournament Organiser reserves the right to veto any army list that abuses the comp. This veto will be used sparingly, and it will be after full discussion with the player."

This is purely to stop someone getting an easy +20 Comp score purely by abusing an obviously missing word in the Comp document. I don't expect to veto any lists, and I certainly won't be vetoing purely based on it being a tough list that plays the comp well. It will only be used to stop people getting away with the king of loopholes that Slatch did last year.

Whilst we are talking about the Rules Pack rather than the Comp itself, I should also note that another extra line has been added since it was first released. This is to do with the Scenarios. It reads as follows:

"Tally Comp and Scenarios

The player with the higher Tally Score (as described in the Comp section) counts as automatically winning the dice roll to determine table sides in all the scenarios at Raze and Ruin. If the Comp Score is a tie, roll off as normal."

This, along with the Look Out Sir provision that was discussed previously, should help to alleviate some of the stress and poor games that result from bringing an under-strength army. If you've brought a Dragon, for example, and got the bonus Comp points for doing so, you should have the option to choose the side that has something to hide said Dragon behind when facing a filthy Dwarf gun line.*

Now on to the Comp itself. I'm not going to list the whole document again, as there actually haven't been that many changes. Plus you can download the new version and compare it yourself if you want to! What I will do is look at the Comp lines that have been altered between this version and the one that I posted here.

Bretonnia

The first place where changes have been made is in the Bretonnian section. I played a game with my Bret army a couple of weeks ago, and whilst my list had changed from a -1 to a +1 with the previous version, it still felt over-comped for what it was. With this in mind, I tried to soften the restrictions a little, and have amended the top half to the following:

Bretonnian armies start at a +1 comp score.

-1 if you take 2 of the following items, -2 if you take all 3:

• Virtue of Heroism

• Virtue of the Impetuous Knight

• Crown of Command
*Please note this line replaces the Generic Comp for the Crown of Command.
-1 if you have Silver Mirror and Dispel Scroll -1 for the second Trebuchet
-1 per Bretonnian Lord or Paladin after the 5th

Changes have been highlighted in red. As you can see, they now have a general +1 bonus, and the penalty for the Crown of Command can be lifted entirely if they give up the two Virtues. To compensate for this, and to ensure that Bret players had to make some choices, I lowered the character limit to 5 before Comp is applied. It might still be too high, but these changes should see Brets at least an option for the event.

Chaos Dwarfs

The next army to see changes were the evil Big Hats.** I admitted to not knowing these guys very well, and contacted the only guy to play them last year. He suggested they were over comped, and from his suggestions I removed the following penalties:

-1 per Sorcerer Prophet on Lore of Hashut

-1 per Bull Centaur Taur’uk

Now the only negatives are for the Chalice, K'Daii and the artillery. Seems fairer!

Daemons of Chaos

There weren't many changes here, but there was a word change to two negatives and an added positive. The first negative that changed was concerning the Herald of Nurgle. I didn't like the way it was worded, so I thought again about the purpose of the line. It is there to stop a single unit of Plaguebearers from having the Regen Locus twice, so I thought why not just simply hit the Regen Locus itself? The line is now:

-1 per Herald of Nurgle with Greater Locus of Fecundity 

Simple and does the job. Possibly a bit OTT, but it encourages other options and that is the point of the Comp! I also added something to the line about Wrath of Khorne Bloodthirsters, as I hadn't considered before the cumulative affect they could have with 50% Lords. The line now reads:

-1 for the first Wrath of Khorne Bloodthirster, -2 for any subsequent

Should come into play very often! The positive that was added was for Isabella the Accursed from the Archaon book. I hadn't realised she could be taken in a pure Daemon army, so I added her in.

Dark Elves

A fair few changes here, mostly to make the comp a little more lenient. The first was concerning the mounted characters. I just didn't like the fact we were hitting pretty much every type of mounted character, leaving them with few options. I tried to streamline things into the below line. 

  

-1 per character mounted on a Cold One, Dark Steed or Pegasus after the 1st

I was tempted to make it after the 2nd, but 3 tooled up Peg riders for only -1 seemed a bit too good, so it stayed as after the 1st. Hopefully Dark Elf players will feel they have some more options now. I also removed the "after the 1st" from the Cold One Chariots, mainly due to comparing them to Lion Chariots and finding them worse in most ways! If someone wants to spam Chariots now, they can get the +6 instead of +5, and good luck to them!

Lizardmen

-1 Razor Standard

I was never really happy with the Razor Standard being comped for Lizards. It's a good item for all, why should they be hit more than anyone else? I still think it will be an easy choice for a Temple Guard unit, but -2 seemed too much for them with the banner, so it's gone.

Ogre Kingdoms

+1 per Big Name worth over 20 points

Our  local Ogre player has been badgering me about the line above. "Why the points limit? They're all terrible!" Well Christian, I finally relented. Go crazy! :D

Orcs and Goblins

+1 per Wyvern

The only change here was to add a line for Wyverns. Yes they already get a bonus for being a monster mount, but they are at least as bad as a Manticore so probably deserve the extra help. It might also encourage an all-Orc list, which would be amazing!

Skaven

Note: Skaven Grey Seers, as they can choose how many spells they take from each Lore before each game, do not take the penalty for being able to choose 3 or more spells from the Lore of Undeath.

A rules clarification here, rather than a Comp change. However, it should limit the penalties on Grey Seers to a sensible level. For the full argument of where this came from, it was initially ruled by the ETC that as Grey Seers get to choose their Lores at the start of the game, and they got Undeath added by the Nagash book, they could choose to take Undeath as one of their spells at the start of the game. Honestly, I'm not sure I agree, but as the alternative was to hit every Grey Seer just in case, it seemed the sensible option.

Tomb Kings

Tomb Kings start on a Comp Score of +2

Reduced for a reason - there's a hidden bonus in their comp section that makes up for it. See if you can find it! :-)

Vampire Counts

-3 Count Mannfred

+1 per every 3 Blood Knights in the army

I kept writing lists with Mannfred in, and he still seemed a better choice than any of the alternatives. His penalty going up was an obvious one really. As for the Blood Knights, I still don't expect to see any, but now a unit of 6 gets a +2, rather than a unit of 8. Seems fair for the investment!

End Times Lists

Basically, if it's changed above and that army can be taken in an End Times list, it's probably changed there too!

Well, that's it for the major changes! Please note that I may have missed some, so if you are coming to the event make sure you check the actual document! Links to both the Rules Pack and the Tally Comp document are in the event thread on TWF (link) and at the time of writing there are 7 tickets left. If you want to come down and try out this Comp system, please follow the link and get one of the last few tickets!

Hopefully I'll find something else to write about soon, but for now I'll say TTFN!!!

*Hey, they're stereotypes for a reason!  

**Not a real army ;-)